by Tony Petrangelo

Jun 9, 2012, 7:00 AM

First poll with Klobuchar against Bills is like every other MN Senate poll so far

PPP (6/8, no trend lines):

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 55
Kurt Bills (R) 29
Undecided 16
(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP tested four different people against Amy Klobuchar and they all fared pretty much the same, A-Klo was between 56-55 and everyone they put up against her was between 29-27. Of all the people who they put up against A-Klo, Doc Severson had the best name recognition. For the GOP endorsed candidate, Kurt Bills, 80% had no opinion.

The race will tighten, there are twice as many undecided Republicans as Democrats and the majority of those people will come home to Bills. Despite his Ron Paul connections I doubt that Bills will significantly under-perform Mark Kennedy, but I also don’t expect that he will significantly over-perform him.

Amy Klobuchar’s favorable rating is 57% approve to 29% disapprove. That fact alone will be impossible for either of the Republicans who are actually in the race to overcome.

Let me put it another way, 25% of Republicans approve of Amy Klobuchar. None of the Republicans polled get more then 19% (Severson). Right now there are more Republicans in Minnesota who approve of Amy Klobuchar than approve of Kurt Bills. Unless something dramatic happens, there is almost no way Klobuchar loses in November.

The more interesting part of this poll may be the hypothetical look ahead to 2014 and Al Franken’s first defense of his Senate seat.

PPP (6/8, no trend lines):

Al Franken (D-inc) 52 (49)
Tim Pawlenty (R) 41 (43)
Undecided 7 (8)
(MoE: ±3.1%)

Al Franken’s improvement here is a bit of a mirage, the numbers changed about the same amount as the partisan composition of the poll itself did. But nonetheless Franken is doing quite well against what many consider to be the likely Republican Senate nominee in 2014.

For a guy who won by the smallest of margins in 2008, 50% of Minnesotans now approve of Al Franken’s work in the US Senate. While he doesn’t have the world beating approval ratings that Klobuchar does, Franken is a great example of a politician benefiting from being out in front of and vocal about controversial issues.

Besides the political questions, there are some other fun questions in this poll, like city favorables:

PPP (6/8, no trend lines):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the city of Minneapolis?
Favorable 59
Unfavorable 20
Undecided 21

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the city of St. Paul?

Favorable 66
Unfavorable 12
Undecided 22

Which city do you like better: Minneapolis or St. Paul?
Minneapolis 40
St. Paul 26
Undecided 33
(MoE: ±3.1%)

These results pretty much confirm my impression of Minnesota’s view of it’s two largest cities. St. Paul fares better when people are asked if they have a favorable opinion of the city, +54 to +39. But when Minnesotan’s are asked straight up which one they like better, the answer is Minneapolis… and by a healthy margin.

This three question series might be my favorite poll results ever. Seriously nice job PPP.

They asked about two other cities as well:

PPP (6/8, no trend lines):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the city of Rochester?

Favorable 60
Unfavorable 4
Undecided 36

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the city of Duluth?

Favorable 75
Unfavorable 5
Undecided 21
(MoE: ±3.1%)

These results are less interesting, but I present them for completeness sake.

Some questions were even asked about the Minnesota Twins:

PPP (6/8, no trend lines):

Do you consider yourself to be a Minnesota Twins fan, or not?

Consider yourself a Twins fan 65
Do not 26
Undecided 9

(Asked only of Twins fans:) Would you support or oppose firing Ron Gardenhire?

Support 8
Oppose 58
Undecided 34
(MoE: ±3.1%)

Those numbers aren’t really surprising, but whatever, it’s the Twins.