by Tony Petrangelo

Sep 12, 2012, 8:00 AM

Marriage and Photo Voter ID amendments both ahead

The polls just keep coming! SurveyUSA, polling for KSTP-TV released a poll on Monday, of which I’m going to discuss the portion concerning the constitutional amendments in this post.

Meanwhile Public Policy Polling was in the field and will likely be releasing results later this week. It’s a great week to be a data nerd like myself.

First up the family discrimination amendment:

SurveyUSA (9/10, 7/20 in parenthesis, 2/10 in brackets):

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

For 50 (52) [47]
Against 43 (37) [39]
Not Vote – (5) [10]
Undecided 8 (6) [4]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This poll represents a high water mark for the anti-amendment forces in SurveyUSA polling, who’s polls haven’t been that favorable so far. And this one really isn’t either, except in the context of their previous poll.

I wouldn’t read this as a surge of momentum for the anti-amendment side, but rather a regression to the mean in SurveyUSA’s polling. Their previous poll seemed like a bit of an outlier at the time, and this poll I think confirms that.

Their previous poll was done in the middle of July and it’s possible that they just got a weird sample of respondents. It happens.

As for the other amendment… ugh:

SurveyUSA (9/10, 7/20 in parenthesis):

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.’s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

For 62 (65)
Against 31 (28)
Not Vote – (2)
Undecided 7 (4)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

It’s hard to get excited about a six point improvement when you’re still losing by 31(!) points.

Unlike the with the anti-family amendment, there isn’t a clear path to victory on the Photo Voter ID amendment. Step one has to be getting Democrats more unified against it, as a not insignificant portion support it. Republicans meanwhile are unified in support of the amendment.

The problem though is it isn’t just a matter of convincing undecided voters, it’s a matter of changing the minds of people who have already made them up. That is hard work and there isn’t much time.