Will Trump really start a war with Iran?
(Disclosure: My record of political prognostication has not proven to be of high excellence. On the contrary, it is a sad wreck, with “there won’t really be a red wave” (2010) and “Trump can’t possibly actually win” (2016) being particular lowlights. Just so you know. Heck, with a record like mine I could be a cable news pundit.)
There’s always a disconnect, in trying to assess the entirely irrational – in this case “President” Trump’s “mind” – by rational analysis. That said:
– #1, in trying to determine somebody’s likely future approach, is to look at his past behavior. Trump has consistently tended to stop short of open conflict, or even very close to that. Venezuela and North Korea are examples. He just does not think that “shithole countries” are worth his time and effort. (I know that last remark was specifically directed at Africa, but he clearly thinks the same of every non-”first world” nation.)
And Trump may actually have some conscious cognizance of what a disaster the Iraq War turned out to be for George W. Bush’s “legacy.” Yes, Trump honestly believes he’s on track to be revered as the greatest president ever. I’m serious.
– He doesn’t think he needs a “distraction,” from his extreme corruption and incompetence or anything else. He’s the great and powerful Trump, and therefore invulnerable.
– The military wants no part of it. I think that Trump would be queasy, though he probably couldn’t say just why, about going against the Joint Chiefs on this.
The Post reported that Pentagon officials—led by Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford—were united in advising deterrence and diplomacy over war…
On the other hand, anonymous defense officials told the newspaper they found Bolton’s more aggressive posture toward Iran troubling.
(Newsweek)
– Russian dictator Vladimir Putin likes Iran. And you know what Trump’s thing is with Putin.
In addition to the above, my gut just says no. But, considering how horrific a war with Iran would be in human costs (that the war pigs seem to think are irrelevant, at least compared to their own sick, cowardly megalomania), that could be motivated reasoning, or even flat-out denial, on my part.
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